Jill Long Thompson is the Democratic nominee for Governor.  Jim Schellinger called her in the last half hour to concede.  Now the fun can really begin.  Mitch Daniels v. Jill Long Thompson v.  Andy Horning.  Who wins?

My sources tell me that Jim Schellinger isn’t ready to concede anything to Jill Long Thompson just yet.  The latest unofficial poll number show Thompson leading with 50.25 percent of the vote to Schellinger’s 49.75 percent.  However, Democratic sources say there are still provisional ballots that have yet to be counted as well as some uncounted precincts still out there.   They estimate a 3,000 vote difference between the two.  Could we have a Bush v. Gore problem on the horizon?  I hope so.  It makes for great punditry.

Wow, that was fun.  It’s been a while since I’ve seen a political nail-biter.  Hillary got a slim victory over Barack 51-49 (White men saved her while Blacks kept Obama competitive).  She needed a big win, but didn’t get it. Clinton only won by 22,412 votes out of 1.25 million voters or a 1.78 percent difference.   It’s like a student who needed a high “A” on his exam to pass the class, but instead got a “C-.”

Jill Long Thompson is sitting on a victory over Jim Schellinger in the Democratic Primary.  Two observations about that race were that in Marion County Schellinger won by less than 3 percentage points.  Had his margin been bigger, he would be declaring victory right now.  Also, Schellinger was the party favorite.  With his loss,  I can hear the bodies start to hit the floor over at One North Capitol in downtown Indianapolis.

Andre Carson is living proof the Carson name is a brand and still works.  However, there is a chink in the armor.  54 percent of  people who voted in that primary chose someone other than Carson.  If the GOP can figure out a way to capture that discontent, they just might be able to win the 7th one day.

And Dan Burton is living proof that you can never overstay your welcome.

Now that all this is over, I’m going to spend the next few days with a martini in one hand, a beautiful woman in the other and a cigar in my mouth.  And I might even switch them around a bit.

 See you next week.

Here’s the latest from the campaign trail.

Turnout continues to be high amongst Democrat voters and low amongst Republicans.  Also, the word on the street is that the Barack Obama campaign is challenging some voters across the state.  One of the latest is in Franklin 13 at the Lutheran High School where 10 voters were challenged and 8 decided not to vote and left.  Franklin 13 is also a precinct where they ran out of ballots.

Don’t forget your ID if you’re going to vote this afternoon.

If you’re planning to vote after work today leave a little early.  Marion County Clerk Beth White said the voting has been pretty heavy this morning and will likely be so this afternoon.  White said the voting in some parts of the city has been heavier than it was in the 2004 general election.  In 2004, the turnout was slightly more than 53 percent county wide.

She said voters may have had to wait, but no one has been turned away.  She says some precincts are running low on paper ballots  because of the high turnout and number of people requesting Democrat ballots.  She says they will get those ballots to the precincts this afternoon during the lull times, however don’t expect  any results anytime soon after the polls close at 6 p.m.

She says she doesn’t expect the votes to be completely tallied until late in the evening.

I’m noticing a trend this morning, for what it’s worth.  Republicans who are crossing over and voting for Hillary Clinton are also voting for Jill Long Thompson and Woody Myers for Congress.   They say they are doing it to stick it to the Democratic establishment.  It may not be enough to make a difference, but it definitely makes life interesting.

Today is the primary.  You know what to do so go do it.  Here are my predictions about today’s outcome and the reasons behind them.   You’re welcome to add your own.

Presidential - I say Barack by 2-3 points.  While Hillary leads in the Real Clear Average Poll and she has the mindles zombies participating in Operation Choas, I think the 160,000 new registered voters will be enough to put Barack over the top if they come out and participate today. 

Governor - I give this one to Jill Long Thompson.  Jim Schellinger’s campaign only came to life in the last couple weeks.  And Long Thompson has been ahead in just about every poll that’s been taken.  I give her the nod by 5.

7th District - I hate to disappoint the Andre Carson haters but I think he will pull this one off, also by about 5 points.  Had it been a two-person race between Carson and Myers, I think Myers would be able to score a clear win.  He may be able to eek out a victory by a  couple points, but I think the Carson-Obama connection puts Carson over the top by 5 over his challengers.

5th District - I don’t think change will come to the second most Republican District in the country.  Dan Burton will likely stay.  I think if Jon McGoff had more money and hit Burton earlier this would have been a different story.  The sliver lining in all this is that if there is a God, this will be Danny’s last term in office.

These are my predictions, but the caveat in all this is that it could change.  :-) 

Go vote and don’t forget your ID.

In case you were wondering how much of a big deal this primary was going to be check out some of these facts from the Marion County Clerk’s Office.

More than 7,900 absentee ballots were mailed out and more than 6,700 returned. That’s an 85-percent return rate.

More than 8,800 people have come into the Clerk’s Office to vote since early voting began on April 7.

Including the traveling board, more than 16,000 absentee ballots have been cast and 75-percent of those pulled a Democratic ballot.

According to the Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita, more than 144,000 Democratic absentee ballots have been requested; 44,000 for Republicans.

Tomorrow is going to be fun.

Every time I get cynical and tired of politics I come across something that makes me laugh and keeps it all in perspective.  Enjoy.

Democrat Barack Obama has just taken the stage and was introduced by former Congressman Lee Hamilton. I was told the Clinton camp was opposed to the two making and joint appearance, but apparently something back stage changed all that.

Barack’s opening ovation was at least equal to Clinton’s. He reminded the audience why he was running, which was to help make badly needed change in this country. He told the audience his campaign has brought people together from all walks of life who all want change.

Barack said the economy was in serious trouble, regardless of whether it was in an official recession.

Barack, trying to connect with those working-class white voters, said America was the place where anyone could make it if they tried. He told how America gave members of his family opportunities to have lives better than the ones before them.

He asked the audience “where was the America of that generation?”

He also took a swipe at Hillary Clinton by asking how many decades have America’s serious problems existed, while elected officials did nothing but talk about them.

Barack told the audience that a better America is possible if Americans work together. (That line for him a standing ovation.) He said politics didn’t lead him to working people, but working people led him to politics. He also said the nation could not afford four years of a McCain Presidency.

Barack said America’s does best when it leads by principles and convictions. He took another swipe at Hillary saying that 30 years in office did nothing to solve the nation’s energy problems and mocked her gas tax proposal saying it would only save Hoosiers 30-cents a day for a few months.

He told the audience that he was the only candidate that could fundamentally change the way things work in Washington. He also echoed the theme that the election was bigger than any candidate but about reclaiming the American dream.

He promised to pay for universal health care by rolling back the Bush tax cuts and criticized John McCain, saying the “wheels came off the straight talk express.”

He said the money to pay for his programs would come from the war in Iraq.

Much of what he said, he’s already said on the campaign trail but it still got a big round of applause from the audience.

His biggest round of applause came at the end when he told the audience the only reason he was on stage was because someone stood up for him and more and people stood up.  And as if on cue the audience rose and applauded.

Barack also spoke for about 30 minutes.